BN-PN Has Slight Upper Hand Over PH As Negeri Sembilan Heads To The Polls

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Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) have edged ahead of Pakatan Harapan (PH) after a week of campaigning for the Negeri Sembilan state election, although the contest remains too close to call.

Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Professor Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the BN-PN cooperation has generated early momentum, particularly in Malay-majority, rural and semi-urban constituencies.

According to Awang Azman, the alliance has succeeded in reducing the split in Malay votes while BN continues to ride on the momentum of its landslide victory in the recent Johor state election.

“The organised grassroots machinery of UMNO and PAS has also strengthened BN-PN’s campaign at the local level,” he told TRP via WhatsApp.

Despite the encouraging start, Awang Azman stressed that the coalition has yet to prove it can translate campaign momentum into votes.

READ MORE: PN Wants To Ditch Voter Confusion, But Might Create Pronunciation Confusion Instead

He said the biggest unknown remains whether traditional BN supporters are willing to back PN and PAS candidates, and whether PN supporters would reciprocate by voting for BN candidates.

“The effectiveness of vote transfers between both sides will only become evident on polling day,” he added.

Awang Azman said that PH remains firmly in the fight, retaining an advantage in urban and mixed constituencies as well as seats represented by incumbents with strong local service records.

READ MORE: PH Unveils Continuity-Focused Negeri Sembilan Manifesto

He said the coalition is also banking on its track record as the former state government by promoting continuity, political stability and development achievements throughout its campaign.

“PH’s micro-targeted campaign strategy also allows it to tailor its messaging according to local issues in individual constituencies.”

Overall, Awang Azman believes BN-PN currently enjoys only a marginal advantage, with the battle for the simple majority of 19 seats still hanging in the balance.

He identified marginal constituencies such as Linggi, Pertang, Rantau, Nilai and several mixed seats as the key battlegrounds that could ultimately determine who forms the next Negeri Sembilan government.

Awang Azman added that while early voting could provide an indication of each coalition’s organisational strength, it should not be interpreted as a reflection of overall public sentiment.

READ MORE: Negeri Sembilan Nomination Day: The Battle Is On

Instead, he said voter turnout, young voters and fence-sitters on polling day this Friday (Aug 1) are expected to decide the election’s outcome.

BN is contesting 25 seats, with its electoral understanding with PN aimed at avoiding straight contests between the two coalitions in most constituencies. PH, meanwhile, is fielding candidates in all 36 state seats.

A total of 21 constituencies will see three-cornered fights, making vote transfers between allies and voter turnout among the decisive factors in the race for Wisma Negeri.

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BN-PN Has Slight Upper Hand Over PH As Negeri Sembilan Heads To The Polls
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