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Political analyst Ong Kian Ming has a blunt assessment of where Negeri Sembilan is heading: Pakatan Harapan (PH), which has governed the state for the past eight years, is on course to lose it — and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke is facing an uphill battle to keep his own state seat.
In an analysis published on Monday (27 July), Ong projected Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) — cooperating for the first time — to win between 23 and 25 of the state’s 36 seats while PH, he said, is likely to end up with 11 to 13, with PKR expected to hold just one of those and the rest going to DAP.
Simple majority to form government is 19 seats, and BN-PN are projected to get there comfortably.
The core of his argument is not about sentiment, it is about arithmetic.
In 2022, BN and PN were competing against each other, Malay votes split three ways and PH slipped through with 44.4 per cent of the popular vote and held on to government through a post-election deal with BN.
This time, that split does not exist, and the former Bangi MP projects Malay voter support for the BN-PN cooperation to exceed 70 per cent.
“With the electoral pact between PN and BN, it is very likely that Malay support for both coalitions will exceed 70 per cent, allowing candidates from both coalitions to avoid splitting the Malay vote, which had allowed PH to win a number of seats in the 2018 state election.”
That one change, he argues, is enough to flip the state.
@malaysia_kini Gabungan Barisan Nasional dan Perikatan Nasional dijangka mempunyai kelebihan untuk menguasai Pilihan Raya Negeri Negeri Sembilan. Bekas Ahli Parlimen Bangi, Ong Kian Ming meramalkan BN-PN berpotensi memenangi antara 23 hingga 25 kerusi daripada 36 kerusi DUN yang dipertandingkan. Sumber video: https://youtu.be/KkiUS1fAQ6M #malaysiakini #malaysianpolitics #fyp #BarisanNasional #PerikatanNasional #dijangka #kelebihan #menguasai #PilihanRayaNegeri #NegeriSembilan #Bangi #OngKianMing #meramalkan #BNPN #berpotensi #DUN ♬ original sound – Malaysiakini
The Slide, By The Numbers
Ong’s analysis maps out what has happened to PH in Negeri Sembilan across every election since 2018:
- 2018: 53 per cent popular vote, 20 seats
- 2022: 44.4 per cent, 17 seats
- 2023 state election: 38.7 per cent, 17 seats
- 2026 projection: 11 to 13 seats
They kept governing despite the decline — first because Bersatu was still with them in 2018, then through a seat-sharing arrangement in the 2023 state election that kept them in Wisma Negeri — but the voters were already leaving.
Ong singled out Chennah — held by Loke — as one of the hardest seats to call in this election.
Chennah has a 47.8 per cent Malay electorate, and anti-DAP and anti-PH sentiment among a portion of those voters makes it genuinely unpredictable, he said.
Ong flagged the seat as “too close to call,” noting that a swing among Orang Asli voters — who make up roughly seven per cent of the electorate and have historically leaned BN — “may be sufficient to give BN a small margin of victory” against BN’s candidate, MCA’s John Siow Kong Choon.
That is the margin separating the DAP secretary-general from losing his seat — a small community’s loyalty, and which way it breaks on polling day.
The Numbers Say BN-PN Win Comfortably
Ong projects BN-PN to already hold 17 safe seats — they need 19 to govern.
Of the 10 closely contested seats he identified, he projects BN to win Jeram Padang and Linggi, while PN is expected to take Klawang, Serting, Sikamat and Ampangan — six battleground seats in total, clearing the majority bar with room to spare.
As a stress test, Ong noted that even if BN were to lose Linggi, the BN-PN combination could still secure 23 seats — enough for a majority to form the state government.
Ong is brief on Bersatu: contesting as a third party, it is expected to have limited impact and will not change the overall outcome, though it could act as a spoiler in some seats by drawing votes away from BN or PH.
For a party that was once inside PH’s own coalition and helped them win this state in 2018, that is a notable fall.
READ MORE: Sanusi Said Go Back To China And India, MCA Said: Have You Seen What DAP Did?
READ MORE: Gerakan Ready To “Break The Egg” In Negeri Sembilan, Says “Give Us A Chance”
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